3 Jun

What to Know BEFORE You Start House-Hunting

Real Estate

Posted by: John Panagakos

As exciting as it is to start your journey towards home ownership (or even up- and down-sizing), there are a few things you should consider first.  Most importantly, you need to determine your purchase range. Having the proper budget for your future home is the best way to ensure future financial success! To create a proper budget, you need to look at your monthly income and expenses to determine how much you can afford in monthly mortgage payments. Download my Mortgage Toolbox app https://www.dlcapp.ca/app/john-panagakos?lang=en and create a profile today to access all of the amazing features, including mortgage estimates and budgeting tools. From there, you can determine your purchase price! Ideally, it is best to try and find a home that fits your needs that is below your maximum budget, which will give you a lower mortgage payment and a little more financial freedom and security for the future.

Beyond determining what you can afford, you need to identify your housing needs. It is important to know that, unless you build it yourself, no home will have everything you are looking for. However, you can find a home with most of the things you want and all of what you need if you are able to be a little bit flexible and realistic about your deal breakers. You should have a list of your must-have items that you cannot do without, such as needing a second bathroom or a third bedroom for a growing family. Your list of must-have items, or needs, should be things you cannot change; flooring and paint color should never be on this list.

Once you have your list of needs and your budget, you can connect with me and begin the pre-approval process. I can also help and guide you with your real estate needs to begin your search.

Remember, whether it is your first or fourth house, home-hunting can be a process. Be prepared to revisit your list and homes several times to find the right fit. It is out there! As long as you stay within your budget, you will not only build equity in your new home but you will have a solid financial foundation to continue growing from.

 

19 May

Record Declines in Canadian Home Sales and Listings in April

Latest News

Posted by: John Panagakos

My previous post was an article on how the pandemic has affected the jobs market and has frozen the Canadian economy during this Covid-19 lockdown. Data recently released from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed national home sales fell to a record 56.8%, showing that the housing sector is no exception.  Among Canada’s largest markets, sales fell by 66.2% in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), 64.4% in Montreal, 57.9% in Greater Vancouver, 54.8% in the Fraser Valley, 53.1% in Calgary, 46.6% in Edmonton, 42% in Winnipeg, 59.8% in Hamilton-Burlington and 51.5% in Ottawa.

The residential real estate industry is not standing still, however. Technological innovation is creating new ways of buying and selling homes. According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Chief Economist, “Preliminary data for May suggests things may have already started to pick up a bit for both sales and new listings, in line with evidence that realtors and their clients have adopted new and existing virtual technology tools. These tools have allowed quite a bit of essential business to safely continue, and will likely remain key for some time.”

I have heard agents discussing software that virtually “stages” properties, allowing potential buyers to see the possibilities of existing and renovated floor plans and options in decor and design. The software replaces the need for expensive “physical” staging and can be far more creative. Where there is challenge, there is opportunity, and the people that create and adopt these innovative virtual solutions could be big winners.

Keeping the lid on price pressures, the number of newly listed homes across Canada declined by 55.7% m-o-m in April. The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index declined by only 0.6% last month, the first decline since last May. While some downward pressure on prices is not surprising, the comparatively small change underscores the extent to which the bigger picture is that both buying and selling is currently on pause.

Mortgage Qualifying Rate Set To Drop

The mortgage qualifying rate, the so-called Big Bank posted rate, has been above 5% since the OSFI stress test began on January 1, 2018. Despite dramatic declines in the government of Canada bond yield, which currently hovers at a mere 0.388%, and a huge fall in contract mortgage rates, the banks have kept their posted rates elevated. The minimum stress test rate began in 2018 at 5.34%, then finally fell to 5.19% and more recently to 5.04%–all still at a historically wide margin above market-determined rates.

In the past week, RBC and BMO have cut their 5-year posted rates slightly further to 4.94%. If no other banks follow, the Bank of Canada’s OSFI stress test rate will fall to 4.99%. If at least one other bank goes to 4.94%, the qualifying rate will drop to 4.94%. Every little bit helps.

Highlights of the Bank of Canada’s Financial System Review

With the first news of the COVID-19 pandemic threat, the BoC report said that “uncertainty about just how bad things could get created shock waves in financial markets, leading to a widespread flight to cash and difficulty selling assets. Policy actions are working to:

  • restore market functioning
  • ensure that financial institutions have adequate liquidity
  • give Canadian households and businesses access to the credit they need”

The Bank of Canada’s actions have put a floor under the economy. These along with the federal government spending initiatives and the mortgage deferral program have cushioned the blow to households and businesses. Governor Poloz said, “our goal in the short-term is to help Canadian households and businesses bridge the crisis period. Our longer-term goal is to provide a strong foundation for a recovery in jobs and growth.”

With the economic outlook remaining highly uncertain, the BoC erred on the side of caution in projecting mortgage arrears and non-performing business loans based on the more severe economic scenario it laid out in the April Monetary Policy Report. The pessimistic reading would be that even with policymakers’ extraordinary actions, that scenario would see mortgage and business loan delinquencies eclipse previous peaks. A more optimistic reading would be that policy support has prevented a significantly worse outcome, and a resilient financial system will be able to absorb losses and leave the foundation in place for an eventual economic recovery. And, as Governor Poloz mentioned, a better economic scenario is still within reach as many provinces are beginning to gradually re-open their economies.

The projections in today’s FSR are based on a scenario in which Canadian GDP is 30% lower in Q2 and recovers slowly thereafter. In that scenario, mortgage arrears are projected to increase to 0.8% by mid-2021 from 0.25% at the end of 2019–nearly double the peak in arrears seen in 2009. Meanwhile, non-performing business loans are forecast to rise to 6.4% at the end of this year from 1% at the end of last year, significantly higher than past peaks of less than 5% in 2003 and 2010.

The upshot is that while we might see a significant increase in mortgage arrears and troubled loans over the next two years in this pessimistic economic scenario, these outcomes would have been much worse without the extraordinary programs that have been put in place to support businesses and households. That has important implications for the banking sector. The BoC’s analysis suggests that, with these policy measures, large bank’s existing capital buffers should be sufficient to absorb losses. Without those interventions, “banks would be faring much worse, with important negative effects on the availability of credit to households and businesses.”

Households:

  • 1 in 5 households don’t have enough cash or liquid assets to cover two months of mortgage payments
  • Government support programs (CERB payments and CEWS wage subsidies) will cover a large share of households’ “core” spending (food, shelter, and telecoms)
  • Loan payment deferrals (banks have allowed more than 700,000 households to delay mortgage payments) and new borrowing can help offset remaining income losses
  • Still, some households are likely to fall behind on their debt payments (first credit cards and auto loans, then mortgages)—something we’re already seeing in Alberta and Saskatchewan

Businesses:

  • There have been some signs of reduced funding stress in April: The Bank of Canada’s bankers’ acceptance program is shrinking, the drawdowns of credit lines have slowed as some borrowers are repaying, and corporate debt issuance picked up significantly in April after ceasing in March.
  • Surveys show higher-than-normal rejection rates for small- and medium-sized businesses requesting additional funding from financial institutions
  • Upcoming corporate debt refinancing needs are in line with historical levels, but many borrowers will face in increased costs of funds owing to elevated corporate risk spreads
  • Nearly three-quarters of investment-grade corporate bonds are rated BBB (the lowest investment grade rating)—downgrades would double the stock of high-yield debt and significantly increase funding costs for those borrowers
  • Firms in the industries most affected by COVID-19 tend to have smaller cash buffers, and a sharp drop in revenues will make it difficult to meet fixed costs including debt payments. What started as a cash flow problem could develop into a solvency issue for some businesses
  • The energy sector is facing particular challenges: it has had to rely more on credit lines, has the highest refinancing needs over the next six months and faces the most potential downgrades

Banks:

  • BoC’s term repos have provided ample liquidity to the banking system and reduced funding costs, hence the drop in some banks’ posted and contract mortgage rates
  • Take-up of term repos has slowed in recent weeks—an indication of improved market functioning
  • Regulators have eased capital and liquidity requirements

Governments:

  • The BoC’s asset purchases have helped improve liquidity in the key Government of Canada securities market (the baseline for many other bond markets)
  • The FSR made little mention of government debt sustainability, but in his press conference Governor Poloz noted that overall government debt levels are similar to 20 years ago, and federal debt is significantly lower, giving the federal government plenty of room to maneuver

Bottom Line:

Of course, the pandemic shutdown has strained the financial wherewithal of many households and businesses. That was deemed the price we must pay to mitigate the severe health threat and contain its spread. The BoC report acknowledges the economic fallout of the necessary measures and promises to take additional actions to assure the economy returns to its full potential growth path as soon as feasibly possible. Cushioning the blow for those most in need.

Nevertheless, there are businesses that will close permanently and others that will scoop up declining competitors. Some will benefit from the new opportunities created by social distancing, enhanced sanitation, remote activity, new forms of entertainment and advances in healthcare. Others will no doubt die, although many of these companies were at death’s door before the pandemic emerged. Creative destruction is always painful for the losers, but it opens the way for many new winners and those existing businesses and individuals that are creative enough to adapt quickly to the changing environment.

Reported by Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

4 Mar

Interest Rates Nosedive as Bank of Canada Cuts Rates 50bps

Latest News

Posted by: John Panagakos

Following yesterday’s surprise emergency 50 basis point (bp) rate cut by the Fed, the Bank of Canada followed suit today and signalled it is poised to do more if necessary. The BoC lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 bps to 1.25%, suggesting that “the COVID-19 virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks.” This is the first time the Bank has eased monetary policy in four years.

According to the BoC’s press release, “COVID-19 represents a significant health threat to people in a growing number of countries. In consequence, business activity in some regions has fallen sharply, and supply chains have been disrupted. This has pulled down commodity prices, and the Canadian dollar has depreciated. Global markets are reacting to the spread of the virus by repricing risk across a broad set of assets, making financial conditions less accommodative. It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity.” The press release went on to promise that “as the situation evolves, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target.”

Moving the full 50 basis points is a powerful message from the Bank of Canada. Particularly given that Governor Poloz has long been bucking the tide of monetary easing by more than 30 central banks around the world, concerned about adding fuel to a red hot housing market, especially in Toronto. Other central banks will no doubt follow, although already-negative interest rates hamper the euro-area and Japan.

Canadian interest rates, which have been falling rapidly since mid-February, nosedived in response to the Bank’s announcement. The 5-yield Government of Canada bond yield plunged to a mere 0.82% (see chart below), about half its level at the start of the year.

Fixed-rate mortgage rates have fallen as well, although not as much as government bond yields. The prime rate, which has been stuck at 3.95% since October 2018 when the Bank of Canada last changed (hiked) its overnight rate, is going to fall, but not by the full 50 bps as the cost of funds for banks has risen with the surge in credit spreads. A cut in the prime rate will lower variable-rate mortgage rates.

Many expect the Fed to cut rates again when it meets later this month at its regularly scheduled policy meeting, and the Canadian central bank is now expected to cut interest rates again in April. Of course, monetary easing does not address supply-chain disruptions or travel cancellations. Easing is meant to flood the system with liquidity and improve consumer and business confidence–just as happened in response to the financial crisis. Expect fiscal stimulus as well in the upcoming federal budget.

All of this will boost housing demand even though reduced travel from China might crimp sales in Vancouver. A potential recession is not good for housing, but lower interest rates certainly fuel what was already a hot spring sales market. Data released today by the Toronto Real Estate Board show that Toronto home prices soared in February, and sales jumped despite low inventories. The number of transactions jumped 46% from February 2019, which was a 10-year sales low as the market struggled with tougher mortgage rules and higher interest rates. February sales were up by about 15% compared to January.

Reported by Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

26 Feb

How To Access Your RRSP’s To Purchase Your First Home

General

Posted by: John Panagakos

Are you in the market for your first home?  Dreaming of a space you can call your own? If you are an eligible first time home-buyer, then contributing to your RRSP(s) befor the March 1 deadline can help you increase the funds available for your home purchase.

The Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) is a program that allows you to withdraw from your Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP’s) in order to purchase or build your first home. In 2019 there was a change to the HBP in an attempt to provide first-time home buyers with greater access to their RRSP savings by increasing the withdrawal limit from $25,000 to $35,000.

How do I know if I qualify?

In order to qualify, at least one homeowner must be a first-time homebuyer, which is defined as the following:

You are considered a first-time home buyer if;
You have never owned a home before
In the last 4 years, you did not occupy a home that you or your current spouse or common-law partner owned
You have a written agreement to buy or build a home
You are a resident of Canada
You intend to occupy the qualifying home as your principal place of residence within one year after buying or building it
You have gone through a breakdown of marriage or common-law partnership (even if the other first-time home buyer requirements are not met)

Buying my first home using The Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP)

Once you know you can take advantage of the HBP, and have topped up your RRSP(s) (if applicable), make an appointment with a mortgage professional to complete a financial health check to determine what you qualify for. This will make it easier for you to shop the market so you are able to look at real-estate listings within your budget.

Note * The down payment funds must be in your account for a minimum of 90 days for the withdrawal to qualify under the HBP.

Do I have to pay the government back?

You will have 15 years to repay the amount used from your RRSP(s), or you can pay in full at anytime during that period. Your repayment period starts on the second year after you first withdrew your RRSP(s) for the HBP. For example, if you withdrew $35,000 in 2020 to purchase your first home, you have until 2022 before your repayment schedule commences.

Each year, the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) will send you an HBP statement with your notice of assessment in order for you to understand how much has been paid back to date, the amount you need to contribute to your RRSP(s) and your HBP balance.