9 Jun

Your Gardening To-Do List

General

Posted by: John Panagakos

If you are looking to have a garden that is the envy of the neighborhood, May is a great time to get started on your gardening to-do list. I have put together some helpful tips and ideas for how to get started so your garden shines all summer long!

1. Plant Annuals and Perennials: This is a great time to start planting annuals and perennials in your garden. Some good choices include: cosmos, marigold, nasturtium, sunflower, sweet alyssum, and zinnia. For the best results, it is ideal to pick an overcast day for initial planting to avoid heat shock and be sure to keep all new plants well-watered until they have settled.

2. Start Summer Veggie Seeds: If you’re hoping to enjoy fresh veggies all summer, be sure to plant them now! Beans, corn, cucumbers and squash can all be sown directly in the soil (ideally when evening temperatures are around 10 degrees Celsius). Another great option is to plant tomatoes as they love the sun and are very hardy, but be sure to provide trellis support! Plant all veggies in a bed of compost (4” – 6” deep) to ensure a healthy start and remember to keep new sprouts moist to avoid heat damage.

3. Spice it Up: Now that the frost has passed, it is also a great time to plant seasonal spices. Basil, dill, rosemary, marjoram, cilantro and fennel are great options for planting this time of year. They require a bright area with 6-8 hours of sunlight per day and well-drained soil to flourish. Even better? Plant them in a container in your windowsill or on your porch so you can easily access them if you need a snip of fresh herb!

4. Lawn Mower Care: Lawn mowing season is just around the corner and now is the perfect time to tune up your lawn mower! Get your blades sharpened, change the oil, filter and update the spark plugs to keep you riding smooth all summer.

5. Lawn Maintenance Routine: Establish a lawn maintenance routine that includes watering your grass and garden, as well as weeding unwanted and unruly foliage and applying fertilizer. A helpful tip is to water your plants in the late afternoon or early evening to cut down on evaporation. This also allows your garden several hours to take up the water into their systems, without battling the sun.

16 Nov

How to Enjoy a Debt-Free Holiday

General

Posted by: John Panagakos

The holidays are coming up! As much as these celebrations bring us joy and harmony, they can also bring us stress. This is particularly true when it comes to your finances! However, don’t lose hope that this will be another draining year on your pocketbook. In fact, with a little planning, there are a few ways you can make sure your holidays are stress and credit-free.

Manage Your Expectations: Did you find the holidays refreshing last year, or were they somewhat draining and you’re still trying to figure out how to pay off your credit card bills? If you are someone that wants your holidays to be energizing and provide that feeling of togetherness, there is more to it than just spending money. Once you decide your expectations, it becomes easier to work towards things that create that result.

Determine Your Holiday Goals: This year you will have a more low-key celebration.  If you usually get away, you’ll be finding yourself homebound this year. No matter how you spend your holidays, sharing your thoughts with family will help determine your goals and come to a decision that works for everyone!

Create a Budget: Once you have decided your expectations and goals for the holiday, it is time to create your budget. A little planning can go a long way to creating a credit-free holiday, and will help you spread out the costs. The first step is to create a list of everything you need, from individual gifts to decorations to baking ingredients and meal items to clothing!

Start Now: Early planning can make all the difference when it comes to the holidays. Instead of lumping your entire budget into a couple paychecks, try keeping an eye out for gift ideas and cute decor all year long. While it may be too late this year, it could be a good strategy to try for 2021! Starting early will help reduce stress and give you more opportunities to scoop up incredible deals throughout the year, which means you can spread your budget even farther!

Accept Help: While I know many of us try to do everything during the holidays so our families can just enjoy themselves, it is important to remember that the holidays are a time when we are supposed to support each other, and celebrate together!  If you are buying gifts for friends, set a limit or challenge everyone to make something by hand! Homemade gifts can often feel more special and it creates a fun exchange for you and your friends. There are many incredible ways to reduce stress and help get others involved so that the holiday is perfect for everyone.

It is easy to get caught up in the consumerism and expectations of the holidays. Is dinner perfect? Did you buy enough gifts?  Is everyone happy? But don’t forget yourself in your efforts to please others.

Even though the holidays can feel hectic, it is important to celebrate YOU and be grateful for what you have – even if you weren’t able to check off all the boxes. Life happens, but the most important thing is that we celebrate when we can.

The holiday is YOURS, so make sure you spend it whichever way brings you the most joy – and the least amount of stress on your pocketbook.

23 Oct

Why Use a Mortgage Broker?

General

Posted by: John Panagakos

In a world with an abundance of options, it can be hard to know which way to turn to ensure that you make the best decision for your future. Fortunately, a mortgage broker can help! With access to over 200 lending institutions including big banks, credit unions and trust companies, mortgage professionals like myself are familiar with a vast array of available mortgage products.

From first-time homebuyer programs to financing for the self-employed or those with credit blemishes, I can help find the best mortgage for you – no matter what stage of life you are in!

A Mortgage Broker Saves Time: One of the biggest benefits to using a mortgage broker is that they are a one-stop-shop that not only saves you time, but can save you money too. Mortgage brokers are experts in mortgages and are able to contact all lenders, from the big 5 banks to credit unions and even alternative options (if required). This means that YOU only need to fill out one application and your broker will do all the heavy lifting in order to present you with the best options for your budget so you can make the final decision!

A Mortgage Broker Can Often Find a Lower Rate: When it comes to mortgages, not all lenders are created equal. Not only do different banks offer different rates depending on the mortgage conditions, but banks can only see their own rates. For you to be able to get accurate quotes, you would need to have multiple meetings – one with each bank or lender – to get their mortgage rate and terms. A mortgage broker has access to all of the different lenders and their connections can often result in a lower mortgage rate and better plan for you and your family.

A Mortgage Broker Offers Unbiased Advice: Mortgage brokers typically work with dozens of lenders and rely on client satisfaction and referrals to keep their business running. Unlike banks focused on signing you for profit reasons, a mortgage broker is a third-party service who gets paid no matter which bank they sign you with. This means they can provide the best rate AND unbiased advice because they are focused on helping you achieve your dream.

A Mortgage Broker Service is (Mostly) No Cost: In most cases, using the services of a mortgage broker comes at no cost to the homeowner or home buyer. A mortgage broker instead receives compensation directly from the lender. The only time you might have to pay is when working with a private lender or a lender that refuses to pay brokerage fees – which a mortgage broker would tell you about in advance.

A Mortgage Broker Protects Your Credit Score: Not only does it take a great deal of time to apply at dozens of lenders yourself, but it can also lead to a lower credit score. Each time you apply at a lender, they have to do a “hard credit check”. Unfortunately, too many credit checks in a short period of time can lower your credit score. The benefit of a mortgage broker is that they typically only need to pull your credit score once to apply to various lenders, which protects your hard work.

If you are looking to purchase your first home, or a new home, in the coming months, I would love to offer my advice and expertise to ensure you get the best mortgage product for YOU. Please don’t hesitate to reach out to book a virtual appointment with me at your earliest convenience!

16 Oct

Canadian Home Sales and Prices Set Another Record High in September

General

Posted by: John Panagakos

Today’s release of September housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows national home sales rose 0.9% on a month-over-month (m-o-m). This continues the rebound in housing that began five months ago amid record-tight market conditions.

“Along with historic supply shortages in a number of regions, fierce competition among buyers has been putting upward pressure on home prices. Much of that was pent-up demand from the spring that came forward as our economies opened back up over the summer,” said Costa Poulopoulos, Chair of CREA.

According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, “Reasons have been cited for this – pent-up demand from the lockdowns, Government support to date, ultra-low interest rates, and the composition of job losses to name a few. I would also remind everyone that sales were almost setting records and markets were almost this tight back in February so we were already close to where things are now, as far away from Goldilocks territory as we had ever been before. But I think another wildcard factor to consider, which has no historical precedent, is the value of one’s home during this time. Home has been our workplace, our kids’ schools, the gym, the park and more. Personal space is more important than ever.”

The modest uptick in home sales nationally reflected diverse results regionally with about 60% of local markets seeing gains. Increases in Ottawa, Greater Vancouver, Vancouver Island, Calgary and Hamilton-Burlington sales were mostly offset by declines in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Montreal; although, activity in the two largest Canadian markets is still historically very strong.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity posted a 45.6% y-o-y gain in September. It was a new record for the month of September by a margin of  20,000 transactions, the equivalent of a normal month of September with an entire month of December tacked on. Sales activity was up in almost all Canadian housing markets on a year-over-year basis.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes declined by 10.2% in September, reversing the surge to record levels seen August. New supply was down in two-thirds of local markets, led by declines in and around Vancouver and the GTA.

With sales edging up in September and new supply dropping back, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 77.2% – the highest in almost 20 years and the third-highest monthly level on record for the measure.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, about a third of all local markets were in balanced market territory, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other two-thirds of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.
There were just 2.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2020 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, a number of Ontario markets are now into weeks of inventory rather than months. Much of the province of Ontario is close to or under one month of inventory.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose by 1.3% m-o-m in September 2020. Of the 39 markets now tracked by the index, all but two were up between August and September.

As buyers are moving further away from city centres, CREA added a large number of Ontario markets to the MLS® HPI this month. The list includes Bancroft and Area, Brantford Region, Cambridge, Grey Bruce Owen Sound, Huron Perth, Kawartha Lakes, Kitchener-Waterloo, the Lakelands (Muskoka-Haliburton-Orillia-Parry Sound), London & St. Thomas, Mississauga, North Bay, Northumberland Hills, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, Quinte & District, Simcoe & District, Southern Georgian Bay, Tillsonburg District and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 10.3% on a y-o-y basis in September – the biggest gain since August 2017. The largest y-o-y gains in the 22-23% range were recorded in Bancroft and Area, Quinte & District, Ottawa and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

This was followed by y-o-y price gains in the range of 15-20% in Barrie, Hamilton, Niagara, Guelph, Brantford, Cambridge, Grey Bruce-Owen Sound, Huron Perth, the Lakelands, London & St. Thomas, North Bay, Simcoe & District, Southern Georgian Bay, Tillsonburg District and Montreal.

Prices were up in the 10-15% range compared to last September in the GTA, Oakville-Milton, Kawartha Lakes, Kitchener-Waterloo, Mississauga, Northumberland Hills, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, and Greater Moncton.

Meanwhile, y-o-y price gains were around 5% in Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan Valley, Regina, Saskatoon and Quebec City. Gains were about half that in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island, as well and in St. John’s, and prices were more or less flat y-o-y in Calgary and Edmonton.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price set another record in September 2020, topping the $600,000 mark for the first time ever at more than $604,000. This was up 17.5% from the same month last year.

Bottom Line

Housing strength is largely attributable to record-low mortgage rates and pent-up demand by households that have maintained their level of income during the pandemic. The hardest-hit households are low-wage earners in the accommodation, food services, and travel sectors. These are the folks that can least afford it and typically are not homeowners.

The good news is that the housing market is contributing to the recovery in economic activity

Reported by Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

29 Sep

Throne Speech: Canada’s Response to Covid-19

General

Posted by: John Panagakos

Prorogation on August 18, following the resignation of Finance Minister Morneau, a new session of Parliament, and a new speech from the throne was meant to allow the government to hit the reset button. And for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, to try and move past the summer of controversy involving WE Charity and the Canada Student Service Grant.

THE FISCAL PICTURE

There was little opposition earlier this year when the federal government backstopped nearly every economic sector through emergency benefits, wage subsidies, and other programs. But with the federal deficit approaching $400 billion, there are growing calls to temper new spending.

The new Finance Minister, Christia Freeland, has consulted with former prime minister Paul Martin, who erased deficits as finance minister more than 20 years ago. And she claimed this week to be “well aware” of concerns about federal spending and the fiscal balance but said getting more people back to work was a top priority, along with managing a second wave of COVID-19 infections.

“The single most important economic policy of our government and the best thing we can do for our economy is to keep coronavirus under control,” Freeland said. “I can’t emphasize that too much. Some people sometimes like to talk about a trade-off between good health policy and good economic policy. I could not disagree more strongly.”

Today’s throne speech is one of the most highly-anticipated throne speeches in recent memory–amid a slowing economic recovery and rising COVID case counts. Though not an economic blueprint, it lays out Ottawa’s vision for what policy supports it believes are needed to carry the country through the next phase of recovery.

Measures already floated include improved permanent support for the unemployed–building on exceptional levels of policy support delivered over the spring and summer. Estimates for how much all of that will cost will await a fall fiscal update and subsequent budget.

COVID-19 CASE COUNTS TICK HIGHER AS THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY SLOWS
A barrage of reports issued in the past week reinforced what will probably be a historically large, and yet still only partial, bounce-back in economic activity over the summer in Canada. Home resales surged again in August. Reports on retail, wholesale, and manufacturing trade for July left GDP still on track to rebound 40% (at an annualized rate) in the third quarter. But that would only retrace only about 57% of the decline over the first half of the year. And early data – including Royal Bank’s tracking of credit card purchases–continue to flag a slowing pace of recovery.

Meantime, virus case counts are being watched more closely again in Canada, given a faster uptick in recent weeks, particularly in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta. This latest wave of infections has been more concentrated among less vulnerable age cohorts, meaning fewer hospitalizations. Still, easing in containment measures has already been paused, and in some spots, reversed. At a minimum, the increased spread is another reminder that there are limits to how much the economy will recover while the virus threat remains.

In today’s speech from the throne, the Governor General was expected to lay out the government’s vision for the pandemic recovery. It won’t be easy, with COVID-19 cases on the rise and investor confidence wobbling. While the economy has improved since April lows, the recovery continues to be fragile–especially in the face of a possible second wave. Where should the government focus its investments? And if it survives the confidence vote, what could we expect in its next budget?

Trudeau insisted that he does not want a campaign soon — but would be ready if necessary. “I think it’s irresponsible to say that an election would be irresponsible,” Trudeau told reporters. “Our country and our institutions are stronger than that, and if there has to be an election, we’ll figure it out.”

“I don’t think that’s what Canadians want. I don’t think that’s what opposition parties want, and it’s certainly not what the government wants.”

A MATTER OF CONFIDENCE

Regardless of how many specifics or dollar figures are in the speech from the throne, it will be a confidence test for the Trudeau government, 15 seats shy of a majority in the House of Commons.

Without support from one major opposition party, an election is likely. But it’s not clear if that’s the kind of reset button opposition leaders are ready to press.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh wants a pledge to extend the Canada Emergency Response Benefit while the Employment Insurance system is reformed. And he wants a clear pledge to extend access to paid sick leave.

Singh told CPAC he heard no specific commitments from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau when the two spoke last week. But he will be watching for signals from the government, not just in the speech itself, but in the debate and legislation that follows.

From new Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, recently given a positive COVID-19 diagnosis: “Let’s see the plan, and if it’s for the betterment of the country, we’ll support parts of that plan. If we don’t see it, we’ll put forward our own vision”.

The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, has threatened to try and force an election over the WE affair unless Trudeau steps down. And the party wants increased health care transfers to the provinces, more support for seniors, respect for Quebec jurisdictions, and support for supply-managed farmers.

But their leader will not be on Parliament Hill as the House of Commons resumes; Yves-François Blanchet has tested positive for COVID-19 and tweeted Tuesday that he and O’Toole would wait to give their formal replies to the speech until after their isolation periods had ended.

ACTUAL MEASURES IN THE THRONE SPEECH

Overcoming pandemic is the key theme of the speech. COVID-19 has been incredibly hard for parents, especially women, young people, older adults, and Black and racialized Canadians. Low wage earners have been hardest hit.

Fight the pandemic and save lives

  • Faster testing, short-term closure orders in high-case areas
  • Help businesses in those areas
  • Additional PPE funding
  • More funding to keep schools safe
  • Vaccine strategy
  • Immunity task force led by scientists

Supporting Canadians Through this Crisis

  • Emergency Wage Subsidy extended
  • Job loss supports
  • Government creates jobs, assists training, youth employment strategy,
  • CERB recipients now supported by EI system–broadened to include self-employed and gig workers
  • Action Plan for women–child care services, create a Canada-wide early childhood education system, after school programs, support for women entrepreneurs.
  • Aid to small businesses
  • Improve business credit, assistance to sectors hardest hit

Build back better to create a more resilient Canada

  • Stimulus for recovery that is done prudently
  • Reduce income inequality by raising taxes stock options and wealth
  • Increase taxes on the digital giants that do business in Canada
  • Defend the strength of the middle class
  • Fighting climate change and commitment to sustainable growth
  • Long-term care homes assistance, new standards for care
  • Increase Old Age Security at age 75
  • Primary care physicians for every region
  • Mental Health resources increased
  • National Universal Pharmacare
  • Telemedicine
  • Limiting firearms
  • National Action Plan on gender-based violence
  • Affordable housing growth
  • All Canadians have access to highspeed internet
  • Affordable regional air services
  • Eliminate chronic homelessness
  • Enhance First-time homebuyer incentive
  • Address food insecurity and enhance local food supply chains, protect food workers
  • Support farmers
  • Introduce the most extensive training and education and accreditation programs in Canadian history
  • Create good jobs in climate action sectors
  • Exceed Canada’s 2030 climate goals
  • More transit options, zero-emissions vehicles and batteries, electric charging stations
  • Cut corporate tax rate in half for clean technology companies
  • Support natural resource and oil companies as they move towards zero-emission and clean-energy goals
  • Ban single-use plastics next year
  • Clean water and irrigation plans

Stand up for who we are as Canadians–welcoming and fights discrimination

  • We take care of each other, welcome newcomers, embrace two official languages
  • Address systemic racism
  • Help Indigenous, First Nations, and Mate peoples
  • Take action on online hate, support employment of Blacks and racialized people
  • Reform criminal justice system and law enforcement
  • Encourage immigration and family unification
  • Invest more in developing economies
  • Support human rights, bring detained Canadians home

BOTTOM LINE

This is an ambitious agenda. Many of these proposals are sweeping commitments. Spending details will come later, likely in a fiscal update in November or December.

The speech did not extend the CERB, which the NDP said was a condition of support. Also, the NDP asked for paid sick leave, which was not mentioned.

Quickly following the speech,  the Conservatives’ initial response was that they could not support this proposal. Among other things, they berated that there was no fiscal framework or anchor to prevent further downgrades of Canadian credit ratings. According to deputy leader Candice Bergen, Conservatives will not support a speech from the throne filled with “buzzwords” and “grand gestures” that ignores the ailing energy sector, farmers, the unemployed, and struggling small business owners.

The political posturing will continue.

In the next week, the speech will be debated, during which time, the government can make changes.

 

Reported by Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

16 Jul

Bank of Canada Holds Target Rate Steady Until Inflation Sustainably Hits 2%

General

Posted by: John Panagakos

The Bank of Canada under the new governor, Tiff Macklem, wants to be “unusually clear” that interest rates will remain low for a very long time. To do that, they are using “forward guidance”–indicating that they will not raise rates until capacity is absorbed and inflation hits its 2% target on a sustainable basis, which they estimate will take at least two years. As well, they indicate that the risks to their “central” outlook are to the downside, which would extend the period over which interest rates will remain extremely low. The Bank also made it clear that they are not considering negative interest rates. The benchmark interest rate remains at 0.25%, which is deemed to be its the lower bound.

The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, with large-scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. The provincial and corporate bond purchase programs will continue as announced. The Bank stands ready to adjust its programs if market conditions warrant.

With the benchmark rate at its effective lower bound, the Bank’s quantitative easing is the way it is lowering mid- to longer-term interest rates, reducing the borrowing costs for Canadian households and businesses. The Bank assumes that the virus will be with us for the entire forecast range, which is two years.

The Bank released its new economic forecast in today’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The MPR presents a central scenario for global and Canadian growth rather than the usual economic projections. The central scenario is based on assumptions outlined in the MPR, including that there is no widespread second wave of the virus in Canada or globally.

The Canadian economy is starting to recover as it re-opens from the shutdowns needed to limit the virus spread. With economic activity in the second quarter estimated to have been 15 percent below its level at the end of 2019, this is the most profound decline in economic activity since the Great Depression, but considerably less severe than the worst scenarios presented in the April MPR. Decisive and necessary fiscal and monetary policy actions have supported incomes and kept credit flowing, cushioning the fall and laying the foundation for recovery.

Mincing no words, the MPR acknowledged that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a “worldwide health-care emergency as well as an economic calamity.” The course of the pandemic is inherently unknowable, and its evolution over time and across regions remains highly uncertain.

In Canada, the number of new COVID-19 cases has fallen sharply from its April high, and the economic recovery has begun in all provinces and territories and across many sectors. Consequently, economic activity is picking up notably as measures to contain the virus are relaxed. The Bank of Canada expects a sharp rebound in economic activity in the reopening phase of the recovery, followed by a more prolonged recuperation phase, which will be uneven across regions and sectors.  As a result, Canada’s economic output will likely take some time to return to its pre-COVID-19 level. Many workers and businesses can expect to face an extended period of difficulty.

There are early signs that the reopening of businesses and pent-up demand are leading to an initial bounce-back in employment and output. In the central scenario, roughly 40 percent of the collapse in the first half of the year is made up in the third quarter. Subsequently, the Bank expects the economy’s recuperation to slow as the pandemic continues to affect confidence and consumer behaviour and as the economy works through structural challenges. As a result, in the central scenario, real GDP declines by 7.8 percent in 2020 and resumes with growth of 5.1 percent in 2021 and 3.7 percent in 2022. The Bank expects economic slack to persist as the recovery in demand lags that of supply, creating significant disinflationary pressures.

Bottom Line

Governor Macklem said in the press conference that what he wants Canadians to take away from today’s Bank of Canada’s actions is “Canadian interest rates are very low and will remain very low for a very long period”. The reopening of the Canadian economy is well underway. Economic activity hit bottom in April and began expanding in May and accelerated in June. About 1.25 million of the 3.0 million jobs that were lost in March-April, were added in May and June.

Some activities, including motor vehicle sales, have already seen a strong pickup since April. Likewise, housing activity fell sharply during the lockdown but is beginning to recover quickly. In contrast, some of the hardest-hit businesses, such as restaurants, travel and personal care services, have only just started to see improvements in recent weeks and are expected to continue to face significant challenges.

Reported by Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

10 Jul

What Your Banker Won’t Tell You!

General

Posted by: John Panagakos

Did you know the biggest difference between getting your mortgage from a bank vs. a mortgage broker is that the bank only has access to their products, while I, your mortgage broker, have access to hundreds of different lending institutions and mortgage products to fit your unique needs?

Here are a few things to keep in mind while doing business with your bank – from opening chequing and savings accounts to personal loans and mortgages, I’ve got you covered!

Bank Fees Add Up
One of the biggest money makers for a bank is the fees; this is especially true with overdraft charges. It is important that you are always checking your accounts and loans to ensure that you are aware of all extra fees (and any interest rate changes), as well as staying on top of your bank account balance. Overdraft and banking fees can add up quickly! Fortunately, these fees can often be negotiated and reduced, especially when addressed early.

Penalties Hurt
Banks are a business and the mortgages and loans you sign with them are contracts. If your mortgage is with a traditional bank, they can often come with steep penalties when broken. When signing for a mortgage or loan, be sure to always read the contract thoroughly and make note of any penalties. Generally speaking, big banks typically have higher penalties to break a mortgage than alternative lenders. Most bank loans have terms of five years or more – but a lot can happen in that time! Even if you don’t think so, you just have to take a look at the current situation in the world to realize just how quickly things can change. While your bank may compete on rates, the high break penalty is built in. As your mortgage broker, I would be happy to help you locate the best mortgage contract with minimal penalties.

Your Credit Health
Most of you have received a letter from your bank, at least once, offering you a line of credit; or a letter from your credit card company urging you to increase your credit card limit, or maybe even sign up for their new card. What these letters typically leave out is how this will affect the health of your credit and where you currently stand. You might be paying extremely high-interest rates on all your financial products, not realizing that your credit score (and other credit-related factors) could be earning you a more reasonable rate for your mortgage, credit card or lines of credit! This is where I can help you to review your financial situation and ensure that you get the best mortgage – at the best rate – based on your current credit health.

You Should Shop Around
A bank only has access to their own mortgage rates. While most people will stay with the same bank for years, there can be a cost for that convenience. More often than not, it’s true that individuals who are renewing will be offered a higher rate than a new customer. Shopping around, especially at renewal time, is a great way to ensure that you are getting the best rate available to you. When you are a few months away from renewal, contact me and I would be happy to help you determine if you are getting the best mortgage before you renew.

When dealing with a bank for your mortgage, it can help to get third-party expert advice. As a mortgage broker, I have access to additional mortgage products beyond your current bank and access to even more options to best suit your needs. Contact me today to book your virtual appointment or download the My Mortgage Toolbox App at https://www.dlcapp.ca/app/john-panagakos?lang=en

 

3 Jun

What to Know BEFORE You Start House-Hunting

Real Estate

Posted by: John Panagakos

As exciting as it is to start your journey towards home ownership (or even up- and down-sizing), there are a few things you should consider first.  Most importantly, you need to determine your purchase range. Having the proper budget for your future home is the best way to ensure future financial success! To create a proper budget, you need to look at your monthly income and expenses to determine how much you can afford in monthly mortgage payments. Download my Mortgage Toolbox app https://www.dlcapp.ca/app/john-panagakos?lang=en and create a profile today to access all of the amazing features, including mortgage estimates and budgeting tools. From there, you can determine your purchase price! Ideally, it is best to try and find a home that fits your needs that is below your maximum budget, which will give you a lower mortgage payment and a little more financial freedom and security for the future.

Beyond determining what you can afford, you need to identify your housing needs. It is important to know that, unless you build it yourself, no home will have everything you are looking for. However, you can find a home with most of the things you want and all of what you need if you are able to be a little bit flexible and realistic about your deal breakers. You should have a list of your must-have items that you cannot do without, such as needing a second bathroom or a third bedroom for a growing family. Your list of must-have items, or needs, should be things you cannot change; flooring and paint color should never be on this list.

Once you have your list of needs and your budget, you can connect with me and begin the pre-approval process. I can also help and guide you with your real estate needs to begin your search.

Remember, whether it is your first or fourth house, home-hunting can be a process. Be prepared to revisit your list and homes several times to find the right fit. It is out there! As long as you stay within your budget, you will not only build equity in your new home but you will have a solid financial foundation to continue growing from.

 

19 May

Record Declines in Canadian Home Sales and Listings in April

Latest News

Posted by: John Panagakos

My previous post was an article on how the pandemic has affected the jobs market and has frozen the Canadian economy during this Covid-19 lockdown. Data recently released from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed national home sales fell to a record 56.8%, showing that the housing sector is no exception.  Among Canada’s largest markets, sales fell by 66.2% in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), 64.4% in Montreal, 57.9% in Greater Vancouver, 54.8% in the Fraser Valley, 53.1% in Calgary, 46.6% in Edmonton, 42% in Winnipeg, 59.8% in Hamilton-Burlington and 51.5% in Ottawa.

The residential real estate industry is not standing still, however. Technological innovation is creating new ways of buying and selling homes. According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Chief Economist, “Preliminary data for May suggests things may have already started to pick up a bit for both sales and new listings, in line with evidence that realtors and their clients have adopted new and existing virtual technology tools. These tools have allowed quite a bit of essential business to safely continue, and will likely remain key for some time.”

I have heard agents discussing software that virtually “stages” properties, allowing potential buyers to see the possibilities of existing and renovated floor plans and options in decor and design. The software replaces the need for expensive “physical” staging and can be far more creative. Where there is challenge, there is opportunity, and the people that create and adopt these innovative virtual solutions could be big winners.

Keeping the lid on price pressures, the number of newly listed homes across Canada declined by 55.7% m-o-m in April. The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index declined by only 0.6% last month, the first decline since last May. While some downward pressure on prices is not surprising, the comparatively small change underscores the extent to which the bigger picture is that both buying and selling is currently on pause.

Mortgage Qualifying Rate Set To Drop

The mortgage qualifying rate, the so-called Big Bank posted rate, has been above 5% since the OSFI stress test began on January 1, 2018. Despite dramatic declines in the government of Canada bond yield, which currently hovers at a mere 0.388%, and a huge fall in contract mortgage rates, the banks have kept their posted rates elevated. The minimum stress test rate began in 2018 at 5.34%, then finally fell to 5.19% and more recently to 5.04%–all still at a historically wide margin above market-determined rates.

In the past week, RBC and BMO have cut their 5-year posted rates slightly further to 4.94%. If no other banks follow, the Bank of Canada’s OSFI stress test rate will fall to 4.99%. If at least one other bank goes to 4.94%, the qualifying rate will drop to 4.94%. Every little bit helps.

Highlights of the Bank of Canada’s Financial System Review

With the first news of the COVID-19 pandemic threat, the BoC report said that “uncertainty about just how bad things could get created shock waves in financial markets, leading to a widespread flight to cash and difficulty selling assets. Policy actions are working to:

  • restore market functioning
  • ensure that financial institutions have adequate liquidity
  • give Canadian households and businesses access to the credit they need”

The Bank of Canada’s actions have put a floor under the economy. These along with the federal government spending initiatives and the mortgage deferral program have cushioned the blow to households and businesses. Governor Poloz said, “our goal in the short-term is to help Canadian households and businesses bridge the crisis period. Our longer-term goal is to provide a strong foundation for a recovery in jobs and growth.”

With the economic outlook remaining highly uncertain, the BoC erred on the side of caution in projecting mortgage arrears and non-performing business loans based on the more severe economic scenario it laid out in the April Monetary Policy Report. The pessimistic reading would be that even with policymakers’ extraordinary actions, that scenario would see mortgage and business loan delinquencies eclipse previous peaks. A more optimistic reading would be that policy support has prevented a significantly worse outcome, and a resilient financial system will be able to absorb losses and leave the foundation in place for an eventual economic recovery. And, as Governor Poloz mentioned, a better economic scenario is still within reach as many provinces are beginning to gradually re-open their economies.

The projections in today’s FSR are based on a scenario in which Canadian GDP is 30% lower in Q2 and recovers slowly thereafter. In that scenario, mortgage arrears are projected to increase to 0.8% by mid-2021 from 0.25% at the end of 2019–nearly double the peak in arrears seen in 2009. Meanwhile, non-performing business loans are forecast to rise to 6.4% at the end of this year from 1% at the end of last year, significantly higher than past peaks of less than 5% in 2003 and 2010.

The upshot is that while we might see a significant increase in mortgage arrears and troubled loans over the next two years in this pessimistic economic scenario, these outcomes would have been much worse without the extraordinary programs that have been put in place to support businesses and households. That has important implications for the banking sector. The BoC’s analysis suggests that, with these policy measures, large bank’s existing capital buffers should be sufficient to absorb losses. Without those interventions, “banks would be faring much worse, with important negative effects on the availability of credit to households and businesses.”

Households:

  • 1 in 5 households don’t have enough cash or liquid assets to cover two months of mortgage payments
  • Government support programs (CERB payments and CEWS wage subsidies) will cover a large share of households’ “core” spending (food, shelter, and telecoms)
  • Loan payment deferrals (banks have allowed more than 700,000 households to delay mortgage payments) and new borrowing can help offset remaining income losses
  • Still, some households are likely to fall behind on their debt payments (first credit cards and auto loans, then mortgages)—something we’re already seeing in Alberta and Saskatchewan

Businesses:

  • There have been some signs of reduced funding stress in April: The Bank of Canada’s bankers’ acceptance program is shrinking, the drawdowns of credit lines have slowed as some borrowers are repaying, and corporate debt issuance picked up significantly in April after ceasing in March.
  • Surveys show higher-than-normal rejection rates for small- and medium-sized businesses requesting additional funding from financial institutions
  • Upcoming corporate debt refinancing needs are in line with historical levels, but many borrowers will face in increased costs of funds owing to elevated corporate risk spreads
  • Nearly three-quarters of investment-grade corporate bonds are rated BBB (the lowest investment grade rating)—downgrades would double the stock of high-yield debt and significantly increase funding costs for those borrowers
  • Firms in the industries most affected by COVID-19 tend to have smaller cash buffers, and a sharp drop in revenues will make it difficult to meet fixed costs including debt payments. What started as a cash flow problem could develop into a solvency issue for some businesses
  • The energy sector is facing particular challenges: it has had to rely more on credit lines, has the highest refinancing needs over the next six months and faces the most potential downgrades

Banks:

  • BoC’s term repos have provided ample liquidity to the banking system and reduced funding costs, hence the drop in some banks’ posted and contract mortgage rates
  • Take-up of term repos has slowed in recent weeks—an indication of improved market functioning
  • Regulators have eased capital and liquidity requirements

Governments:

  • The BoC’s asset purchases have helped improve liquidity in the key Government of Canada securities market (the baseline for many other bond markets)
  • The FSR made little mention of government debt sustainability, but in his press conference Governor Poloz noted that overall government debt levels are similar to 20 years ago, and federal debt is significantly lower, giving the federal government plenty of room to maneuver

Bottom Line:

Of course, the pandemic shutdown has strained the financial wherewithal of many households and businesses. That was deemed the price we must pay to mitigate the severe health threat and contain its spread. The BoC report acknowledges the economic fallout of the necessary measures and promises to take additional actions to assure the economy returns to its full potential growth path as soon as feasibly possible. Cushioning the blow for those most in need.

Nevertheless, there are businesses that will close permanently and others that will scoop up declining competitors. Some will benefit from the new opportunities created by social distancing, enhanced sanitation, remote activity, new forms of entertainment and advances in healthcare. Others will no doubt die, although many of these companies were at death’s door before the pandemic emerged. Creative destruction is always painful for the losers, but it opens the way for many new winners and those existing businesses and individuals that are creative enough to adapt quickly to the changing environment.

Reported by Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

14 May

Pandemic Batters Canadian Jobs Market

General

Posted by: John Panagakos

A Recession Like No Other

The Canadian economy has been put in a medically induced coma. Never before in modern history have we seen a forced shutdown in the global economy so, not surprisingly, the incoming data for April is terrible. There is a good chance, however, that April will mark the bottom in economic activity as regions begin to ease restrictions.

The economy will revive, but the psychological shock is perhaps the most unnerving. Rest assured, however that, as severe as this is, there are real opportunities here along with the challenges. There are economic winners, not just losers. More on that later.

Employment in Canada collapsed in April, with 2 million jobs lost, taking the unemployment rate to 13.0%, just a tick below the prior postwar record of 13.2% in 1982 (see chart below). The record decline is on the heels of the 1 million job loss in March, bringing the cumulative two-month total to 15.7% of the pre-virus workforce.

Economists had been expecting double the job destruction–a 4 million position decline in April–in reaction to the reports that over 7 million Canadians had applied for CERB. Today’s news reflected labour market conditions during the week of April 12 to April 18. The applications for CERB are more recent, so we may well see these additional losses reflected in the May report.

The 13% unemployment rate underestimates the actual level of joblessness. In April, the unemployment rate would have been 17.8% if the labour force participation rate had not fallen. Compared to a year ago, there were 1.5 million more workers on permanent layoff not looking for work in April – and so not counted as unemployed.

Also, the number of people who were employed but worked less than half of their usual hours for reasons related to COVID-19 increased by 2.5 million from February to April. As of the week of April 12, the cumulative effect of the COVID-19 economic shutdown—the number of Canadians who were either not employed or working substantially reduced hours—was 5.5 million, or more than one-quarter of February’s employment level.

In April, both full-time (-1,472,000; -9.7%) and part-time (-522,000; -17.1%) employment fell. Cumulative losses since February totalled 1,946,000 (-12.5%) in full-time work and 1,059,000 (-29.6%) in part-time employment.

Decline In Employment is Unprecedented

The magnitude of the decline in employment since February (-15.7%) far exceeds declines observed in previous labour market downturns. For example, the deep 1981-1982 recession resulted in a total employment decline of 612,000 (-5.4%) over approximately 17 months.

More of the drop in employment now is the result of temporary layoffs. In April, almost all (97%) of the newly-unemployed were on temporary layoff, whereas in previous recessions, most of the dismissals were considered permanent.

In April, more than one-third (36.7%) of the potential labour force did not work or worked less than half of their usual hours, illustrating the continuing impact of the COVID-19 economic shutdown on the labour market. But job losses were also still weighted, on balance, more heavily in lower-wage jobs. Average wage growth for those remaining in employment spiked sharply higher as a result to 11% above year-ago levels.

All provinces have been hard-hit

Employment declined in all provinces for the second month in a row. Compared with February, employment dropped by more than 10% in all regions, led by Quebec (-18.7% or -821,000).  Quebec leads the country in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.

The unemployment rate rose markedly in all provinces in April. In Quebec, the rate rose to 17.0%, the highest level since comparable data became available in 1976, and the highest among all provinces. The number of unemployed people increased at a faster pace in Quebec (+101.0% or +367,000) than in other regions.

Employment dropped sharply from February to April in each of Canada’s three largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs). As a proportion of February employment, Montréal recorded the largest decline (-18.0%; -404,000), followed by Vancouver (-17.4%; -256,000) and Toronto (-15.2%; -539,000).

In Montréal, the unemployment rate was 18.2% in April, an increase of 13.4 percentage points since February. In comparison, the unemployment rate in Montréal peaked at 10.2% during the 2008/2009 recession. In Toronto, the unemployment rate was 11.1% in April (up 5.6 percentage points since February), and in Vancouver, it was 10.8% (up 6.2 percentage points).

Employment Losses By Sector

In March, almost all employment losses were in the services-producing sector. In April, by contrast, employment losses were proportionally larger in goods (-15.8%; -621,000) than in services (-9.6%; -1.4 million). Losses in the goods-producing sector were led by construction (-314,000; -21.1%) and manufacturing (-267,000; -15.7%).

Within the services sector, employment losses continued in several industries, led by wholesale and retail trade (-375,000; -14.0%) and accommodation and food services (-321,000; -34.3%).

Industries that continued to be relatively less affected by the COVID-19 economic shutdown included utilities; public administration; and finance, insurance and real estate.

In both the services-producing and the goods-producing sectors, the employment decreases observed in the two months since February were proportionally larger than the losses observed during each of the three significant labour market downturns since 1980.

As economic activity resumes industry by industry following the COVID-19 economic shutdown, the time required for recovery will be a critical question.

After the previous downturns, employment in services recovered relatively quickly, returning to pre-downturn levels in an average of four months. On the other hand, it took an average of more than six years for goods-producing employment to return to pre-recession levels following the 1981-1982 and 1990-1992 recessions. After the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, it took 10 years for employment in the goods-producing sector to return to pre-crisis levels.

Green Shoots

As bad as things are, there is some evidence that the economy is approaching a bottom. Business shutdowns are easing in most provinces, and while it will be some time before we see a complete reopening, early signs of improvement are evident. Business sentiment appears to have improved somewhat towards the end of April, as evidenced by data from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. The Royal Bank economists report that credit card spending looked less weak at the end of April. Housing starts for April held up better than expected. And, most importantly, the spread of Coronavirus has eased, and regions are starting to relax some of the rules to flatten the curve.

Concerning the housing market, before the pandemic, we were going into the spring season with the prospect of record sales activity in much of the country. Aside from oil country–Alberta and Saskatchewan–all indications were for a red-hot housing market. So the underlying fundamentals for housing remain positive as the economy recovers. How long that will take depends on the course of the virus and whether we see a second wave in late fall.

Interest rates have plummeted. Thanks to the 150 basis point decline in the prime rate, variable rate mortgage rates have fallen for the first time since late 2018. Once the Bank of Canada was able to establish enough liquidity in financial markets, even fixed-rate mortgage rates have fallen.

The posted mortgage rate appears stuck at 5.04%, far above contract rates; but with any luck at all, this qualifying rate for mortgage stress tests will ease in the coming months. The Bank of Canada will remain extremely accommodating. In my view, interest rates will not rise until 2022.

Opportunities–There Will Be Winners

Even now, some businesses are enjoying a surge in revenues and profitability. Just to put a more positive note on this period of rapid change, I jotted down a list of companies that are thriving. Top of the list is Shopify, a Canadian company that helps businesses provide online shopping services. Shopify is now the most highly valued company in Canada, as measured by its stock market valuation, surpassing the Royal Bank.

Many who never relied on online shopping have become converts during the lock-down. Amazon is another business that is benefiting, but Amazon needs more competition, and many Canadians would welcome some homegrown online rivals.

Loblaws, with its groceries and drug stores, is booming. So are the cleaning products companies like Clorox and paper products company Kimberly Clark. Staying at home has boosted sales at Wayfair, the online furniture and home products site. Peloton and suppliers of dumbbells and other fitness equipment are seeing increased revenues as people look for in-home alternatives to the locked-down gyms and health clubs.

Demand for cloud services has boosted revenues at Microsoft and Dropbox. Home entertainment is booming, think Netflix and YouTube. Zoom and Cisco (Webex) are also big winners. Qualcomm stands to gain from a more rapid move to 5G. And Accenture and Booz Allen, among other business and government consultants, are busy helping companies reinvent their operations in a post-pandemic world.

Reported by Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

In times of enormous uncertainty and volatility, people need expert advice and hand-holding, particularly concerning their finances. Please know that I am here to support you as you have done for me in these past years. If you or anyone you know need help or have any questions around mortgage options, or are simply looking for advice, please feel free to reach out to me directly via phone or e-mail.